NZ Broker Stock Picks 2024: Brokers, Readers And Myself

Posted in   Blog, Investing   on  May 4, 2024 by  Money Bren0

Nothing in this article is financial advice. The writer is not your financial advisor. Investing contains risk and you can lose money. Consult your own professionals before making investment decisions. This article may contain affiliate links. 

Every year, NZ Herald runs a stock picking competition between some of NZ's top brokers.

They're asked the best shares to buy for the year (or rather, to pick which stocks will go up the most).

Last year I ran a competition that allowed all of you to participate as well for a $100 prize.

The results were as follows:

Congrats to @deamaj who topped the list with a 13.52% return for the year taking out the $100 prize.

This year we're doing it again! Last week I put out the call on Instagram for everyone to make their picks:

The competition is slightly different this year for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, the performance will be measured from April rather than January, since we are starting late.

Also this year each broker was asked to pick 3 NZ stocks, 1 AU stock and 1 US stock, rather than 5 NZ stocks.

Below are the picks from the top 5 brokers, myself, and everyone who entered.

Again, $100 in stocks is up for grabs!

Name

Pick #1

Pick #2

Pick #3

AUS Pick

US Pick

Forsyth Barr

RYM

ATM

AFT

RMD

DIS

Craigs Investment Partners

CEN

SUM

SKT

CSL

AMZN

Hamilton Hindin Greene

IFT

VHP

NZX

WTC

JNJ

Salt Funds Management

IFT

TWR

FRW

TLS

AMT

Nikko Asset Management

SUM

SKT

CEN

NEXT

NFLX

@moneybren

SUM

ARV

PYS

DSK

NKE

savvy_stace_

MEL

SUM

AFI

PTM

RCL

thesoulbro88

MEL

TRA

IFT

BHP

V

bjh_chch

RYM

OCA

IFT

IGO

MSTR

j.roy.s

IFT

CEN

RYM

MQG

NVDA

muma_jax

SUM

IFT

CEN

CBA

NVDA

gloverrenos

WHS

SEK

HGH

ADH

MMM

lebeauzky

SUM

AIR

THL

MYR

BRK.B

ntomsett

HGH

ARV

RYM

XRO

TSLA

darindickson

FBU

IFT

EBO

WC8

MSTR

hcym03

SUM

SML

POT

MIN

V

duncancostley

HGH

KMD

BAI

PDN

NEM

Why Did I Pick Those Stocks?

I've written up my reasoning behind most of the stocks I've picked.

You can read my research on SUM and ARV here.

You can read my thoughts on Paysauce here.

You can read my thesis on DUSK here.

I don't have a writeup on Nike, but the simple thesis is it's one of the world's most valuable brands and its stock price is currently beaten up.

If you'd like to see my writeups on other stocks, you can see them all here.

How Did Brokers Do In 2023?

Curious to see how the brokers' 2023 picks went?

forsyth barr (+2.74%)

oceania healthcare -2.56%

tourism holdings +8.57%

infratil +14.61%

vsl -3.56%

spark -3.37%

Hamilton Hindin Greene (+1.77%)

infratil +14.61%

nzx -11.57%

investore -18.79%

general capital +17.46%

auckland airport +7.13%

Craigs Investment Partners (-3.42%)

chorus -5.19%

ebos -20.74%

meridian energy +3.62%

spark -3.37%

tourism holdings +8.57%

Jarden (-17.09%)

infratil +14.61%

contact energy +3.63%

tourism holdings +8.57%

pacific edge -76%

delegats -36.27%

hobson wealth partners (-3.59%)

auckland airport +7.13%

contact energy +3.63%

ebos -20.74%

fletcher building +1.70%

Vector -9.69%

MSL Capital (-2.89%)

aft pharmaceuticals (aft) -3.49%

air new zealand -13.33%

arvida group +4.39%

mercury energy +17.23%

nz land -19.23%

moneybren (+11.09%)

millennium copthorne +2.16%

summerset +12.35%

ryman +14.84%

sky tv +17.52%

tourism holdings +8.57%

Which Broker Has The Best Record?

Luckily for you guys, I have a friend that's been tracking this competition since 2017.

The left column shows the NZX Index return, the right column shows the return of their 5 picks.

What do you see?

You should have noticed there's a clear standout who's beaten the index in every single year: Craigs.

In fact, their first down year was in 2022, where their picks returned -4.8%. 

Unfortunately they had a down year in 2023 as well, returning -3.42%, while the NZX50 was slightly up (about 1%).

Still, they are the most consistent performer among the brokers featured.

While I think one year returns are meaningless most of the time, I do think that's very impressive from Craigs and in my opinion is enough for investors to give their picks a little more attention, and also pay more attention to their commentary each year.

This year they've gone with Summerset, SKY TV and Contact Energy - all solid picks and 2 out of 3 I own myself, both personally and in the @moneybren public portfolio.

For their international picks they've taken CSL which is a blue chip healthcare company in Australia and one of the most consistent dividend payers on the ASX, and Amazon, which needs no introduction.

Those look like two "safe" picks to me, though I won't be surprised if they perform strongly.

Interested in getting started in stocks? My free guide for Kiwis to buying your first $100 stocks is available here.


Build Your First Million

My free net worth tracker that I use daily is available to you, for free.

I'll show you to track your net worth, and grow it!

Just enter your email below and I'll send it right over.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked

{"email":"Email address invalid","url":"Website address invalid","required":"Required field missing"}