Portfolio summary

• Current portfolio value is $217,809 after 68 months.
• The change in portfolio value for the quarter was -13.6% (Last quarter $252,175).
• The investment return for the month was -15.28% and is currently -15.28% for the year.

(The change in portfolio value and investment return are different, because one takes into account new cash added to the portfolio and one doesn’t).

This portfolio is made up of:

💥 BOOM weekly savings: $7,620
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🚮 Decluttering: $11,686 (get started here!)
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💸 Matched betting: $47,847 (get started here!)
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📦 Flipping: $2,676 (get started here!)
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📝 Surveys: $150 (get started here!)
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🖥️ Simple Courses sales: $12,241 (view all my courses here!)

🏋️‍♀️ 1-on-1 coaching: $390
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🎉 Sharesies bonuses: $150⠀⠀
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🧧Leftovers from Chinese New Year Instagram giveaway because people didn’t want free money: $90⠀⠀

🎁Leftovers from 500 follower Instagram giveaway because people didn’t want free money: $300
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💰 Personal dividends: $3,541

🖱️ Niche Site A (Home Remedies): $12,791 (get started here!)
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🖱️ Niche Site B (Fitness): $4,432 (SITE SOLD!)
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🖱️ Niche Site C (Superfoods): $8,470

🖱️ moneybren.com (affiliate commissions): $52,300

💵 Interest: $716
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💹 Sharemarket gainz: $39,460 (get started here!)

💹 Crypto gainz: $7,526 (get started here!)

Markets have been down this quarter, mostly due to the Iran situation, but I also think markets have been overheated anyway.

The big 7 tech stocks are coming back to more realistic valuations, but that’s also brought the wider market with it.

Nothing to panic about – lower prices make good buying opportunities and there are plenty of them around!

Summerset

I’ve written about Summerset many times both here on the blog and on Instagram. It’s my highest conviction bet and currently the second biggest position in the portfolio behind Bitcoin.

Summerset is currently going through a drawdown and is sitting around $9/share.

This puts it at 0.7 book value and the lowest its been in several years.

Meanwhile, the business is booming, they’ve just opened in Australia with great success, and NZ sales are at record highs.

Essentially you’re buying some of the best housing in New Zealand at 70 cents on the dollar, and getting a superbly run business for free.

If you want to read more about the economics of the retirement home business, you can read my writeup on Summerset here.

Right now Summerset owns an extensive land bank which they plan to develop over the next few years. The industry right now is currently in a supply shortage, meaning there aren’t enough retirement homes being built and demand far exceeds supply and this is only expected to widen as the population ages.

Once their current landbank is built out, Summerset expects the book value of their portfolio to be around $25/share.

Typically, retirement operators trade higher than book value, usually around 2x per share, but have gone as high as 4x.

That would put Summerset between $50 – $100 per share.

It’s currently $9 per share.

This is one of the safest and best value plays I see in the share market right now.

I’m accumulating as much as possible at these prices, both in the public portfolio and my personal portfolio.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s bull market has come to and end and the price is down 40-50% from its $125k peak.

This is the major driver of why the portfolio is down so much this quarter, but it’s nothing unexpected.

I’ve written more about my view on the market here but everything is more or less in line with what I’ve predicted over the last four years.

I did predict a higher peak ($150k to $200k) but the four year cycle is intact and I expect Bitcoin to bottom late this year before start a run up to a new all time high in 2028.

I haven’t sold any of the Bitcoin in the public portfolio, and will be adding at these lower prices.

It still remains the biggest position in the portfolio and I expect it to stay that way.

Oceania Healthcare

I’ve opened a small position in Oceania Healthcare, which operates a very similar business to Summerset.

Oceania owns arguably the best retirement village in the country (The Helier) and while sales have struggled for them, they still own many high quality developments.

Oceania is currently trading at 0.4 book value, meaning you’re buying these housing developments at 40 cents on the dollar.

The most likely scenario I see is actually a takeover similar to Arvida, as prices are too low to ignore here. The company is trading for about $500m which is pocket change to the type of private equity that have acquired these businesses in the past (Metlifecare and Arvida were both acquired by foreign private equity).

I see no reason why Oceania shouldn’t be next, as it’s cheaper and arguably higher quality than both of those. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bid come in tomorrow and will continue accumulating at this price.

Dusk

I finally sold my Dusk position.

I bought this during Covid and it was a high conviction pick of mine. The business had a superb track record and 17 consecutive quarters of growth.

I opened my position around $3.50/share, but it quickly tumbled over the next couple of years to a low of 65 cents. I was buying all the way down, but it’s hard to see it turning around from here.

In my defense, the fundamentals are actually still very sound, the business still makes about $4m per year in profit with zero debt, and pays a 9% dividend. I still think the market is underpricing this by quite a bit. However, the growth story that it had back during Covid has fizzled out. Their store numbers have been flat now for a couple of years, and I don’t see them growing significantly in Australia/NZ in the near future. There have been talks of them expanding in Asia, but I think they have no chance there.

It actually wouldn’t be a terrible idea to hold onto it and just bank the 9% each year, with a chance for growth on top (I don’t see it falling much lower than it is now, it’s incredibly cheap). But I think I have better ideas for that capital right now. Putting it into Bitcoin at these lows should yield far higher returns.

We invested $11,039 into the position. Sold it for $6,103. Collected $1,773 in dividends. A loss of $3,163.

You can view all previous portfolio updates here.

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