For several years now I've been talking about the crypto bull run in Q3/Q4 2025, and how I'd been preparing for it.

Now that we're officially in Q1 2026, I'd like to write a recap of how my predictions played out, and what comes next.

Overall the market moved pretty much how I expected.

Bitcoin reached a new high of $125k on 7 Oct, right at the start of Q4.

However, this was significantly lower than my prediction of $150k-$200k.

Of course, another run to that level is still possible (since anything is possible), but I wouldn't expect it this late in the halving cycle. It's much more likely we have a short bear market before bottoming again sometime in late 2026 or early 2027, as has happened in previous cycles.

Another thing I was wrong about was the strong altcoin rally which never materialized (it still might but I'm not banking on it).

I believed established altcoins like Doge, Ethereum, XRP, Litecoin and Solana would surpass their previous highs, probably by a lot, which didn't happen at all. Some recovered to their old highs, but many disappointed.

Some examples are Dogecoin, which I entered at 8 cents and expected to hit at least $1. It peaked at 45 cents.

Litecoin I entered in the $40 range and expected to at least reach its previous high of $300, but it peaked at $133.

Had you entered them at the time I entered, they still ran up 200% to 300% which was a nice gain if you exited at the right time (which I'm guessing you didn't, I didn't either), but overall these gains were disappointing compared to previous cycles.

Why did this happen?

Of course we can only guess but a few possibilities come to mind:

• A lot of "inflation trade" capital that would traditionally go into Bitcoin ended up going into gold and silver instead (not sure why).
• ETFs made Bitcoin much easier for institutions to short, keep price suppressed while Wall St made money.
• Industry is maturing, meaning diminishing returns (hard to get 100x gains when the market is already with trillions).
• People are making money on other crypto "plays", such as memecoins, Microstrategy, crypto options etfs, and many other related products that don't require actual investments into Bitcoin to make money.

Of course, this is because predictions are just predictions. When reality starts to play out you need to be adaptable.

In early November things started to look more bearish, I did recommend anyone who was nervous or needed to take profits (needed the cash) to do so around $105k, which in hindsight would have been a good move.

As for me personally, I have said many times I will never sell my Bitcoin, and I didn't.

I'm still hodling and still confident for the long-term, and Bitcoin is still the largest holding in the @moneybren portfolio.

What's next?

Traditionally the year after an all-time high is the best time to accumulate Bitcoin.

Take a look at this chart:

This chart was made at the start of 2025, predicting the next peak would be 532 days after halving (22 April 2024), based on previous cycles.

The peak turned out to be on 7 October, 533 days after, meaning this charting was impressively accurate.

Now if you look at previous cycles, observe what happens to price the year after an all-time high (the red box).

Price falls to lows, but only for about a year. Then it starts it climb towards the halving date, and again peaks after halving.

This cycle has now played out accurately 3x times over 12+ years, almost like clockwork.

What does this mean?

It means, based on previous cycles, you should be accumulating aggressively in 2026! We're already into February, meaning the next 11 months should be an ideal time to enter at very attractive prices.

This is the same play I offered in 2022/2023, and the same one I'll be following now.

If this was your first crypto cycle, one thing you probably noticed was how quickly things move. When it's time to buy, you think you have time, and then it's gone. When it's time to sell, you think you have time, then it's gone.

Now that you've been in the game once, you'll be better prepared on how to move.

This is not the time to sell. It's the time to buy.

Not financial advice.