Every year, NZ Herald runs a stock picking competition between some of NZ's top brokers.
They're basically asked what they think the best NZ shares to buy will be in 2023 (or rather, to pick which NZ stocks will go up the most in 2023).
For 2023, I'll be piggybacking on this competition and letting @moneybren readers do the same!
Two days ago I put out the call on Instagram for everyone to make their picks.
Below are the picks from the top 6 brokers, myself, and everyone who entered.
To make it fun, I'll be giving the winner $100 in stocks as a prize on 31 December 2023!
Name | Pick #1 | Pick #2 | Pick #3 | Pick #4 | Pick #5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hobson Wealth Partners | AIA | CEN | EBO | FBU | VCT |
Hamilton Hindin Green | IFT | NZX | IPL | GEN | AIA |
Craigs Investment Partners | CNU | EBO | MEL | SPK | THL |
Jarden | IFT | CEN | THL | PEB | DGL |
Forsyth Barr | OCA | THL | IFT | VSL | SPK |
MSL Capital | AFT | AIR | ARV | MCY | NZL |
Moneybren | MCK | SUM | RYM | SKT | THL |
savvy_stace_ | FBU | MEL | AFI | RYM | KPG |
bjbigbake94 | VSL | IFT | POT | ARV | FRE |
muma_jax | IFT | FBU | SUM | CEN | MEL |
samanthanzmorris | THL | MCY | FPH | ATM | IFT |
matty_zzh0ng | IFT | RYM | MCY | AIA | PCT |
__jesslr | RYM | IFT | THL | MCY | AFT |
deamaj | RYM | IFT | MCY | THL | SUM |
rolandgelo | RYM | SPN | MCK | HGH | AIR |
thesoulbro88 | SKT | AIR | IFT | AIA | POT |
mikeltnn | RBD | NZX | NZL | RYM | AIR |
eve_frankie | IFT | AIR | NZX | MCY | MEL |
gloverrenos | WHS | KPG | GNE | SEK | SKL |
shanaia_king | CNU | VCT | IFT | GEN | MEL |
rebeccamnolan | ATM | CEN | IPL | MEL | EBO |
bendoubleu | ATM | THL | MEL | SPK | CNU |
Most common picks for 2023
The NZX is a small market so some overlap is inevitable, but let's see if there was a clear winner:
Infratil (IFT): 12
Tourism Holdings (THL): 8
Meridian Energy (MEL): 7
Ryman Healthcare (RYM): 7
Mercury Energy (MCY): 6
Air NZ (AIR): 5
Auckland Airport (AIA): 5
Contact Energy (CEN): 4
A2 Milk (ATM): 3
Fletcher Building (FBU): 3
Ebos Group (EBO): 3
Summerset Group (SUM): 3
Spark (SPK): 3
Chorus (CNU): 3
NZX Group (NZX): 3
Kiwi Property Group (KPG): 2
Investore Property (IPL): 2
Sky TV (SKT): 2
Vulcan Steel (VSL): 2
AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT): 2
Vector (VCT): 2
Millennium Copthorne (MCK): 2
Port of Tauranga (POT): 2
Infratil is the clear standout here, which makes sense - markets are quite choppy and Infratil is very defensive. They own mostly infrastructure assets such as Wellington Airport and Vodafone, plus some renewable energy companies.
Personally I've always found Infratil to be a great company but too expensive to invest in. Will be interesting to see how the share price fares in 2023 after a strong 2022.
Why Did I Pick Those Stocks?
I've written up my reasoning behind most of the stocks I've picked.
You can read my research on SUM and RYM here.
You can read my thesis on SKY TV here.
You can read my thesis on MCK here.
If you'd like to see my writeups on other stocks, you can see them all here.
How Did Brokers Do In 2022?
Curious to see how the brokers' 2022 picks went?
In order:
Hobson Wealth Partners (-26.3%)
Heartland Group (HGH) -14.5%
mainfreight (mft) -19.1%
sky tv (SKT) -8.7%
Trade window (TWL) -68.8%
manawa energy (mnw) -20.7%
Hamilton Hindin Greene (-7.2%)
a2 milk (atm) +22.5%
fletcher building (fbu) -23.6%
f&P healthcare (FPh) -29.8%
infratil (IFT) +12%
freightways (fre) -17.1%
Craigs Investment Partners (-4.8%)
contact energy (CEN) +7.5%
summerset group (SUM) -29.3%
pushpay (Pph) +4.9%
EBOS (EBO) +16.7%
Fletcher building (FBU) -23.6%
Jarden (-1%)
contact energy (CEN) +7.5%
infratil (IFT) +12%
Heartland Group (HGH) -14.5%
skellerup (SKL) -3.4%
comvita (CVT) -6.4%
Forsyth Barr (+5.8%)
channel infrastructure (CHI) +57.1%
SKycity (SKC) -14.3%
Arvida group (ARV) -36.5%
EBOS Group (EBO) +16.7%
Vulcan steel (VSL) +6%
MSL Capital (+9.6%)
aft pharmaceuticals (aft) -15.6%
fletcher building (fbu) -23.6%
heartland group (hgh) -14.5%
nz rural land (nzl) +1.6%
promisia Healthcare (phl) +100%
Which Broker Has The Best Record?
Luckily for you guys, I have a friend that's been tracking this competition since 2017.
The left column shows the NZX Index return, the right column shows the return of their 5 picks.
What do you see?
You should have noticed there's a clear standout who's beaten the index in every single year: Craigs.
In fact, their first down year was in 2022, where their picks returned -4.8%.
However, the index returned -9.6%, so they still beat the market.
While I think one year returns are meaningless most of the time, I do think that's very impressive from Craigs and in my opinion is enough for investors to give their picks a little more attention, and also pay more attention to their commentary during the year.
Anyway, let's see how the year plays out. Write down your NZ stock picks for 2023, and I'll see you guys in December!
Interested in getting started in stocks? My free guide for Kiwis to buying your first $100 stocks is available here.
